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August 16, 2006

The End Of Iraq Iraq

On Point Radio today carried an extraordinary conversation, noteworthy for its frankness, about the current state of Iraq. It's online, and very much worth a listen.

The consensus was pretty dire:

  • if anything, things are much worse than is reported in the US
  • a civil war between Sunnis and Shiites is already underway
  • the country has de facto broken into three states (Kurd, Sunni, Shiite)
  • the current "unity government" governs little but the Green Zone
  • the White House has no intention of committing the personnel and resources it would take to change these facts
  • the White House is just trying to hang on long enough to foist the inevitable pullout onto Bush's successor.

    The inescapable conclusion: Iraq will be officially broken into three statelets defined along ethnic lines.

    Something not considered in the discussion: maybe the breakup of Iraq has been the desired outcome all along. Various observers have contended from the outset that this is the outcome administration neocons have wanted. It is certainly what Israeli hardliners have wanted.

    An observer (from Mars, say) who could only see the administration's actions, not hear its rhetoric, might well conclude it's all been purposeful. It's been one long succession of screwups, but somehow with every screwup the eventual breakup of Iraq became more assured. So were they really screwups?

    It's hard to know, but one has to wonder why — if the intent all along was to arrive at just this endgame — the administration didn't just declare early on that the ethnic realities of Iraq demanded that Iraq be broken into three states, break it up, declare victory, and be done with it? Why this elaborate and enormously costly charade, ending in what must certainly be viewed as defeat for the US?

    Various hypotheses suggest themselves. It could just be what it looks like: they're incompetent, arrogant fools who were blinded by their belief in America as hyperpower, the new Rome, and who just don't get fourth-generation war. Or, it could be that different elements in the administration are working at cross-purposes: for example, Cheney, Rumseld, et al are deliberately driving towards an outcome of their choosing, and Bush (perhaps), Congress, and much of the military don't know they're being played. The only way for them to pull this off would be to make it all look like incompetence.

    What's the reality? Beats me. Either way, unified Iraq is toast. Wingers who say we're winning, that it's the mainstream media's fault that things look bad, are out to lunch, as will become painfully clear in the very near future.

    Posted by Jonathan at August 16, 2006 09:32 PM  del.icio.us digg NewsVine Reddit YahooMyWeb

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