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June 01, 2006

Gore In 2008

Politics

I have no idea if this is authoritative, but it's interesting:

A new behavior prediction tool is forecasting a landslide victory for former Democratic Vice President Al Gore in the 2008 presidential election. However, should Hillary Clinton gain the Democratic nomination, any potential Republican challenger will win the presidency.

These are among the surprising findings reported by Dr. James N. Herndon, a media psychologist with Media Psychology Affiliates. Using a new research tool called Affective Encryption Analysis, Dr. Herndon led an investigation into the likely outcome of the 2008 Presidential election.

"Affective Encryption Analysis is a new behavior forecasting tool that looks at how our feelings and emotions can influence our long-term actions," explains Dr. Herndon. "Traditional survey techniques are not very good at predicting trends. Affective Encryption Analysis was developed to dig deeper into the emotional factors that control our future behaviors."

Although created as a potential tool for the intelligence community, Affective Encryption Analysis has seen its early uses in the political arena.

"Voter behavior is not primarily issue-driven," states Dr. Herndon. "Subtle emotional factors drive our actions at the ballot box. When we decided to study the potential outcome of the 2008 Presidential election, we had no preconceptions about what we’d find. Nonetheless, there were some surprises."

Among the surprises was the overall weakness of potential Democratic presidential challengers.

"Despite the widespread public dissatisfaction with the George W. Bush administration, our results showed even greater ill-feelings toward potential Democratic challengers," says Dr. Herndon. "But there was one exception: Al Gore."

"With a predictive accuracy of 93%, our results showed that Al Gore would easily defeat any Republican challenger in 2008. However, he is the only Democrat on the scene today who has the ability to defeat the likely Republican challengers, who we believe will be either John McCain or Jeb Bush."

Results were not rosy for Hillary Clinton. "Hillary Clinton would suffer a disastrous defeat at the hands of any Republican who receives the nomination," states Dr. Herndon.

Should Al Gore decide not to seek the 2008 nomination, the Democrats "have their work cut out for them," according to Dr. Herndon.

"Our results suggest that a potentially successful Democratic nominee may be lurking in the entertainment industry. Does this sound strange? Maybe. But when it comes to politics, we may have to get used to a future full of surprises." [Emphasis added]

Who knows if this "Affective Encryption Analysis" has any merit, but my gut feeling is that the conclusions are probably correct. I think Al Gore, who has shed the robotic stiffness and air of superiority that alienated voters in 2000, would be a very formidable candidate indeed, especially given rising public anxiety around the global climate and peak oil issues. People want a reason to hope, and his "loss" in 2000 and subsequent redemption make him a sympathetic figure. I also think Hillary would get creamed. I'd love to see Feingold in the White House, of course, but I'm afraid that remains the longest of long shots.

Posted by Jonathan at June 1, 2006 09:28 PM  

Comments

Yep, I'd like to see Russ Feingold as the next preznit too, but being Jewish and having two divorces in the resume will work against him. Mark Warner, ex gov of Virginia is a great candidate but nobody knows him at the moment. How about Gore and Warner in '08. Sounds about right. Hilary has absolutely no chance, and I think she and Bill will realize this soon enought.

Posted by: Dilbert at June 2, 2006 02:47 PM

Oh Dear. Two divorces. I love Russ and really he is only candidate I feel that I could get up energy for but in our present climate in this country I doubt he will make it. Still I hope that he tries. I've decided I'd rather work for a hopeless cause that I believe in then jump on the bandwagon of someone I don't fully support. I'm still regreting the energy I put into the Kerry campaign.

I have to say that I'm still smarting from the way Gore and then Kerry conceded the race. I really feel that they both did more harm to our political system by backing down then a fight, even if they lost, would have caused. The problems at polling places across the country need to come to the light of day. As it is now they are only considered the stuff of conspiracy theorists. And therefore not taken seriously. A court battle would have gone far to expose the problems in the system.

I will not vote for Hilary Clinton and I hope she does not run. My dream is that the democratic party will work together to put forth a good candidate or at least not tear each other down in the primary. Hahahahaha....a woman can dream.

Posted by: Charyn at June 2, 2006 03:23 PM