January 01, 2006
|Rumors Of War||Iran|
Global Guerrilla's John Robb on rumors of an impending US attack on Iran:
My two cents on how this attack would occur: it would rely on a combination of hard target destruction (facilities that don't contain nuclear material) and an EBO directed against Iranian cities. What this means is that there is no way to take out 300 dispersed facilities with airpower with any degree of confidence. Destruction of Iranian infrastructure through an effects-based attack (EBO) would be made to force them to allow inspectors in to supervise the dismantling of their program. It would de-modernize them until they complied.
This is a bold strategy for the mid-term elections. It would totally reverse public sentiment and provide new justification for the "Bush Doctrine."
Unfortunately, this system perturbation will only accelerate the instability already underway and drive oil prices through the roof... Anyone know of a good LEAP-like product for oil that I could buy? For global guerrillas in Iraq, this will be mana from heaven since it will allow Sunni guerrillas to make common cause with Shiite guerrillas against the US. In larger geopolitical terms, we would soon find ourselves in a fight with a global guerrilla virtual state factory that stretches from Israel to China. [Emphasis added]
Personally, I find it hard to believe that even this White House would be so reckless as to attack Iran, but as their political situation continues to deteriorate (with Jack Abramoff about to flip, for example) and as the 2006 elections draw near, who knows?
It would be a desperate gamble, for sure. The disruption of international oil markets could leave the US economy reeling, or worse. The US Army, already close to broken, could be reduced to a smoking ruin with the inevitable intensification of fighting in Iraq. Air power alone can only do so much.
It would be dumb beyond belief. But when has that stopped them before?
I think it won't occur. BUt I agree with you, if it happen, it should be the hugest mistake ever made by american foreign policy makers.
Posted by: laurent at January 2, 2006 04:23 AM